China's Most Recent Trade Statistics

Export figures for the month of September and October, are particularly suspect. Year, China's exports rose an annual 9.9% in September. The following month, they increased by 11.6 per cent. According to most observers, China September numbers indicate the beginning of a long-awaited economic recovery.


Anomaly is already starting to look like the beginning of October and the figures during a typical August, November represents the fact, quite similar in August and November. In August, exports increased by 2.7%. 2.9% in November. Import growth is always a key sign, fell 2.6 percent in August. In November, they did not change.


September-October is now starting to look like a typical inconsistency of baseline represented by figures from August to May and November. In fact, August and November numbers look remarkably similar. In August, exports increased by 2.7%. In November, it rose 2.9%. Imports, always a key indicator of growth, fell 2.6% in August. In November, they stay the same.

Are we to believe that China's export boom has lasted only two months? Anything is possible, but a more likely explanation for the abnormal September and October figures is that they have been distorted by false transactions.

Anne Stevenson-Yang Research Capital J in Beijing in November in one of his e-mail alerts, suggests that uptick in exports is partly due to hot money inflows caused by currency speculation. Exporters, he said, is too sales, enabling them to book revenue in dollars. They then use the documents to get permission to sell dollars for renminbi. The result is that exporters make money with forex trading their products, but the Ministry of Commerce trade figures overstate China's exports.


Tom Netherlands, South China Morning Post reported that an ingenious plan artificial, inflated Beijing trade statistics, there is, he pointed out, for example, is justified part of the legitimate trade in goods from China, via Hong Kong. transport for final assembly in Shenzhen by Hong Kong-manufactured parts in Shanghai, Hong Kong has always been a part of the People's Republic of China since 1997, but it is not considered customs purposes.

China, Hong Kong, China trade via Hong Kong "for tax evasion." The benefits are enormous. For example, the Chinese rules provide a value-added tax of 17% of electronic products. In addition, the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement between China's tariffs imposed on a number of value-added exports of goods in Hong Kong to the Chinese mainland. "All that is needed is a little imagination invoice, and provide you with a very generous tax evasion scam, Netherlands wrote." "In all probability the goods never left the mainland." Netherlands in the past 12 months, the transaction value of RMB tax high degree of relationship "may be more than one trillion yuan." That, in any case, the legitimate participants counterfeit Renminbi business larger than speculation, the most popular in Europe, told reporters that the subject of a recent trip tax evasion and trading ". officials in Hong Kong, he said, which is a repeat of the Beijing agreement" stand idly by "in the past.

Although Hong Kong officials will not hit these transactions? One reason is that they seem to be under orders to promote Hong Kong as the renminbi spot and trade trade in Renminbi bloat statistics.